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Actinium Pharmaceuticals Inc (NYSEMKT:ATNM) Management Is Doing The Presentation Rounds

Actinium Pharmaceuticals Inc (NYSEMKT:ATNM) Management Is Doing The Presentation Rounds
Written by
Chris Sandburg
Published on
February 7, 2017
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Actinium Pharmaceuticals Inc (NYSEMKT:ATNM) is up more than 25% on its February open on its highest volume since mid last year. The gains come on the back of no real fundamental developments, but management has been doing the presentation rounds, and it looks as though this is drawing speculative attention to the company's pipeline. Development stage biotech is getting a boost right now on the back of some macroeconomic input (read: the potential impact of a Trump administration on development capital flowing into the space) and for the smaller names, there's never been a better time to get the word out. As such, we think there's some run room left in this one as management continues to take the stand at the various events. Specifically, we're looking to an event called Hematologic Malignancies: New Therapies and the Evolving Role of Transplant, set to take place in Chicago on March 17, as a key driver.

Ahead of this event, we're looking for some speculative accumulation to boost Actinium's market cap.So what is the speculation based on?The company has two lead therapies in its pipeline (there are a few others further down the roster, but they aren’t value drivers right now) that account for its current market cap. One is a bone marrow transplant (BMT) asset called Iomab-B, and the other is an acute myeloid leukemia (AML) asset called Actimab B. Those familiar with AML will likely already recognize the link between the two treatments. For those new to the science on this one, the SOC treatment for AML is a BMT. However, in many patients, a BMT is not possible because of the high number of leukemic cells in the bone marrow. Iomab-b works to clear the cancerous cells from the bone marrow, and in doing so, to prepare the patient for a BMT.Which brings us nicely to Actimab-B. This one is a cytotoxic agent – basically the equivalent of a chemotherapy regimen but designed to be far more selective to cancer cells. After a patient has a bone marrow transplant, they then become eligible for treatment with something like Actimab-B, and this works to help maintain a cancer free macroenvironment.So where does the value thesis lie?Well, both of these treatments are pretty advanced along the development pathway, with the former, Iomab, currently in a phase III study, and the latter, Actimab, currently under investigation as part of a phase II.As per the presentation that is doing the rounds, the company expects to complete enrollment for the phase III by the end of this year. BMT enrollment can be tricky, because patients are often averse to taking on a risky treatment at that stage of something like AML.As such, completion is a big deal, and should be a major upside driver when it hits press. Topline should come at some point during the second half of 2018, so it's a bit of a slow burner, but we expect some accumulation ahead of the catalyst.Actimab offers some nearer term upside, specifically rooted in the release of interim data from the ongoing phase II. This should hit press (and again, we're quoting the presentation that is doing the rounds right now) at some point during mid-this year. We’re looking at early third quarter as an outside target time frame. Once the interim hits, Actinium will sit down with the FDA and put together a protocol for phase III, ahead of topline early next year.Cash on hand at last count (September 30, 2016) came in at a little over $15.6 million, and this should provide the necessary capital to carry the two lead assets through to trial completion on the ongoing programs. We expect a raise ahead of the phase III Actimab initiation, so dilution is probably on the cards for late second quarter 2018.We will be updating our subscribers as soon as we know more. For the latest updates on ATNM, sign up below!Disclosure: We have no position in ATNM and have not been compensated for this article.

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