Here's What's Happening With Biopharmx Corp (NYSEMKT:BPMX)

Biopharmx Corp (NYSEMKT:BPMX) was trading for less than $0.45 a piece when we highlighted it as being a biotech stock to keep an eye on back in February. At the most recent close, shares went for $0.69, and have spiked to more than $0.71 during the early US session on Monday this week. That's a 57% appreciation. A couple of presentations aside, there's not really been any fundamental developments from the company, and it's looking like the run is symptomatic of traders loading up ahead of the continuing success of Biopharmx's lead development asset as it matures along the clinical development pathway.If it is loading, then there's plenty of room for further appreciation as we move into the middle of the year and beyond.Here's a look what this capital is getting in ahead of, and what those who are allocating it are hoping for from the catalysts in question.The company is a development stage biotech stock with a primary focus on the development of therapies for acne patients. Specifically, it's developing a drug called BPX-01, and it's targeting what's called acne vulgaris (just think of this as acne – it's the most common type). BPX-01 isn't anything particularly revolutionary, but this far from limits its potential. It's basically a reformulation of a broad spectrum antibiotic called minocycline. Minocycline's used across a whole host of indications, including acne, but it's administered systemically (oral, IV, etc.) and systemic administration requires high dosage. High dosage translates to toxicity, which translates to unwanted side effects. BPX-01 is minocycline reformulated to allow for topical administration (it's a cream) and it's non oil based, which means it's not going to exacerbate the oily skin problem that's generally associated with acne vulgaris.And it's not all about eliminating side effects. There's a large portion of the population that are acne sufferers but cannot receive standard of care antibiotics for various reasons – pregnancy, too young, etc. Additionally, there's an increasingly serious problem with antibiotic resistance. The high dose administration of the systemic antibiotics used in many of the acne population exacerbates this resistance issue. By being a topical administration formulation, the amount of antibiotic that reaches the active site (the lesions on the skin) is increased, so a lower overall antibiotic concentration can be used. This makes it safer for the above mentioned special groups (pregnancy, etc.) and reduces the footprint of resistance that's left behind after the acne is treated.So if this drug gets approved, there's a $10 billion acne market waiting to be targeted. It's not going to dominate the market, at least not right away, because the current SOCs are very well established, but it doesn’t need to dominate if it's to bring about a substantial revaluation for BioPharmX. The company currently trades for a market capitalization of $46 million. If it can launch with moderate success, there's an estimated $450 million to be captured annually. That's a close to ten times multiple on the entire company's valuation right now.Of course, this is development stage biotechnology, and nothing is guaranteed. The early stage data looks good, and clinical trial data to date suggests the drug can be effective (management has been hopping from stage to stage on the dermatology conference scene to highlight exactly that), but BioPharmX is going to need to put the drug through (what will likely have to be) two phase III studies before it gets a chance at a commercialization green light, and that's both costly and fraught with potential setbacks.That's assuming, of course, that the current phase IIb goes well. Which brings us to the next catalyst. Results from the ongoing study are set to hit press before the end of the second quarter. If they come out as indicative of efficacy, they should be sufficient to warrant the putting together of a phase III protocol, and in turn, should induce some nice upside on release.We will be updating our subscribers as soon as we know more. For the latest updates on BPMX, sign up below!Disclosure: We have no position in BPMX and have not been compensated for this article.