Anthera Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:ANTH) Is Getting Cheaper: Is It Still Worth A Punt?

Anthera Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:ANTH) is one we've looked at a couple of times in the past, and one we've taken something of a contrarian position on as a result of this coverage.In the period since we first highlighted Anthera (the first quarter of 2017), the company hasn’t really managed to live up to our expectations. It currently trades (at last close, Thursday last week) for $0.39 a share. That's a year to date decline of around 40%.Sometimes, however, you've got to stand strong behind these contrarian plays for a little longer than would be initially comfortable. While the legal vultures are still circling, and in the wake of the company's most recent dip (based on the announcing of a raise mid March), we still believe there's a recovery on the cards as markets realign to reflect the reality of what caused the decline in the first place. In line with this suggestion, then, we think the cheaper this stock gets, the cheaper an exposure becomes to the eventual turnaround.Here's what we're thinking, and what the latest news says about our expectations.First, a bit of background.The lead asset right now is called Sollpura, and it's targeting a CF related condition called exocrine pancreatic insufficiency. Check out this coverage for a detailed description of the drug and the target condition. The drug failed two phase III studies at the end of last year, and that was the start of the decline for Anthera.Early this year, however, we noted that the trial design was faulty, and that this may be why the trials failed. Not a certainty, of course, but potentially. Anthera has since come out and suggested the same, and the lawsuits seem to be based on this suggestion also. If this is the case, then, the company should be able to redo the trials with a revised design, and get a winning outcome.Now, for shareholders that loaded up ahead of the initial release, that's not going to heal the wounds of failure. We recognize this. For those wondering whether to sell up and bail out post news, however, for anyone thinking about pulling the trigger on a position, it's very much food for thought. We also noted that the necessity to carry out another trial is going to cost money, and that this money would almost certainly derive from a dilutive raise. We said this in January. In March, Anthera raised $15 million. So again, it's not great if you've held on through the trial failure and the dilution, but from a forward looing perspective, reevaluation is necessary.The latest news is that the company has completed enrollment in a trial investigating its secondary asset, blisibimod. This one's a phase III, and it's investigating the drug in an IgA nephropathy indication. This one's going to read out during the third quarter of this year, at which point we expect to already have some clarity on the Sollpura situation (in other words, when the revised phase III trial is set to kick off).So this means we've got a phase III catalyst from the IgA trial next quarter, and the potential for initiation of a lead primary in Sollpura around the same time. The former, if indicative of clinical benefit on its release, is going to spark a run to the upside and the beginnings of a recovery. The latter, as it plays out towards conclusion, should serve up enough bridge catalysts to keep the run going, and we'll see a recovery completion (and more) if the data comes out positive at trial completion.Like we said last time, it's a bit of a punt. The trial design may well have been wrong, but just making it right doesn’t guarantee it's going to demonstrate efficacy when it hits press. If it fails again, the program will die, and the company will dip.That said, we think there's enough reward on offer here to justify a speculative exposure to the two ongoing programs, and a recovery late this year, early next, if things play out in favor of Anthera's pipeline.We will be updating our subscribers as soon as we know more. For the latest updates on ANTH, sign up below!Disclosure: We have no position in ANTH and have not been compensated for this article.