What Just Happened With ImmunoCellular Therapeutics Ltd (NYSEMKT:IMUC)

Back on June 15, we published this piece detailing our thoughts on biotech play ImmunoCellular Therapeutics Ltd (NYSEMKT:IMUC). We suggested that the company was in something of a unique position and that, based on the very limited available exits from said position, we would likely see a near-term bounce from then-current levels.At the time of our putting forward this suggestion, ImmunoCellular went for $0.87 a share.Midsession on Wednesday, the company traded for $2.19 a piece before settling to close out the day at $1.67. To highs, that is a 151% run. To the session close, it's a 91% appreciation.For our readers that picked up an exposure on the back of our coverage, congratulations.Normally, when we see our thesis validated in this way, we take a look at the stock against the backdrop of its latest run and ask the question, what's next? In this instance, however, it's not quite that simple. Why? Because while we saw the action we expected, we haven't actually had any fresh news hit the press to drive it. As such, any speculation as to what's next isn't just speculation based on interpretation of recent news, it's also speculation on what drove the recent action. In other words, we have two layers of speculation to work through.­Our previous thesis was rooted in the fact that ImmunoCellular basically ran out of cash and that as a result – has had to halt the progress of its lead development asset, a drug called ICT 107. In turn, we suggested that the company would need to pick up a partner that would be willing to fund development through to commercialization and that the announcing of any such partnership would attract a large degree of speculative volume towards the company and – by proxy – boost its market capitalization.So, we got the large increase in volume (more than 3 million shares traded hands on Wednesday compared to standard daily volume in and around the low double digit thousands) and we got the boost in market capitalization (the company gained 85% in one day). What we didn't get, however, was any news of a partnership or, for that matter, any fresh capital injection.The more speculative side of the market might be inclined to believe the action we are seeing is a degree of loading up ahead of a near-term announcement to the tune outlined above. Sure, no one should be trading on the knowledge of a yet to be announced development (such as a takeover or partnership deal) but that doesn’t mean it doesn't happen, and we have seen companies move considerably, especially at this end of this sector, prior to a major announcement hitting press on many occasions in the past.So how are we going to play this one?There's a good chance we're going to see some degree of near-term correction as shorter-term operators pull profits off the table. If we had some news to go on, this correction might be minimal. In the absence of any clear driver, however, we could see 20% to 50% of the recent gains pull back. Subsequent to this correction, however, and as a speculative position, we think that there is plenty of value in picking up an exposure (or adding to any current exposure) as the dip bottoms out.Sure, it's a risky position. The recent run may be just a spike and could settle back to sub-$1 near term. With that said, however, we think there's something going on behind the curtain and that – if there is – there's considerable room for upside revaluation as and when things become clear. There's also probably plenty of run room on the squeezing of shorts out of the market this week.Be sure to catch up on all the details from our previous coverage here before acting.We will be updating our subscribers as soon as we know more. For the latest updates on IMUC, sign up below!Image courtesy of Filter Forge via FlickrDisclosure: We have no position in IMUC and have not been compensated for this article.