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Northwest Biotherapeutics, Inc (OTCMKTS:NWBO): What's Going On Behind The Scenes?

Northwest Biotherapeutics, Inc (OTCMKTS:NWBO): What's Going On Behind The Scenes?
Written by
Chris Sandburg
Published on
January 24, 2017
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Northwest Biotherapeutics, Inc (OTCMKTS:NWBO) is drawing a considerable amount of what can only be referred to as ridicule right now. The company put out a press release early December addressing the progress of its long-standing glioblastoma multiforme trial, and highlighted the subsequent two weeks as a potential timeframe to keep an eye on, and one within which the company expected to put out some information concerning the study and where things stand.We are now closing in on the end of January, and no such update has hit press. In a just published 8K, logged with the SEC on January 23, Northwest management reported a transcript between an unnamed shareholder and Les (Goldman). According to the transcript, the reason that management hasn't yet put out an update on the brain cancer trial is that certain members (or a member – not stated) came down with the flu during the holiday season, and have (has) only just returned to work.The filing has drawn the attention of some of mainstream finance media's biggest names, including the Wall Street Journal, but very much not for the right reasons. Northwest's PPS is down a few percentage points on the report, and sentiment is a little damp. The question now is, what's going to happen when the delayed update does hit press?We think this question is a really interesting one, and one that – if the answer falls in our favor – could be an opportunity to pick up a position on damp sentiment.For those not familiar with the situation, Northwest has a long running GBM study based in Germany for which enrollment was halted back towards the end of 2015, but which has continued to dose patients to date. The trial has been the keystone of a raft of shareholder dissatisfaction, as nobody really knows (outside of management, that is) why the study is on hold, and management hasn't been forthcoming with any clear reasoning. The early December announcement was pretty much the first time we had heard anything related to the study direct from the company in 12 months, and as such, markets were pretty excited to see any indication of how the trial was going. Northwest ran up in the wake of the initial announcement, but has since crashed back down to give away the majority of the post announcement gains.Bringing things back to the present, the situation is this: we can choose to believe the flu excuse, or not; it doesn't really make any difference to the outcome. Whatever happens, management has suggested it is going to get the data together for release "soon", and we think this means sometime over the next four weeks. Jumping back to the recent release, the trial has now completed enrollment (with the company having taken the decision to accept the pre-halt enrollment state as complete) and it is now a case of waiting until the events (read: deaths) threshold is hit. The data should give us some indication as to how far away we are from these events being reached, albeit a blinded indication, and in turn, should give us some indication of how the drug has performed so far. Essentially, if the events threshold has not yet been reached, patients are living far longer than expected with this condition. Everything else aside, that, for us, is a positive sign, and vindicates the science that underpins the drug.And that is what this one comes down to right now – it is a science play. If the science is sound, and it looks as though it is, the company should be able to pull through all of its adverse events – delisting, toxic financing, management ineptitude – and get this one to commercialization, or in the hands of a buyer; both of which would reward shareholders that have seen their exposures deplete massively over the last 12 to 18 months.We will be updating our subscribers as soon as we know more. For the latest updates on NWBO, sign up below!Disclosure: We have no position in NWBO and have not been compensated for this article.

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