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Northwest Biotherapeutics, Inc (OTCMKTS:NWBO) Just Gave Us The Update We Were Waiting For

Northwest Biotherapeutics, Inc (OTCMKTS:NWBO) Just Gave Us The Update We Were Waiting For
Written by
Chris Sandburg
Published on
February 7, 2017
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For a long time, we've kept Northwest Biotherapeutics, Inc (OTCMKTS:NWBO) on our radar. The company has been one of the hardest stocks to read over the last eighteen months, rooted in a clinical hold on its lead asset, and sentiment surrounding its prospects have (as a result) been decidedly subdued. Well, management just put out a release that looks set to reverse longer term sentiment, and bring this company center stage as one to keep an eye on in oncology going forward.Here's what just happened, why it's important, and what we are looking for next.Before we get into the update, let's bring new readers up to speed.The company is an immuno oncology entity working to treat various types of solid tumor cancers with an asset called DCVax. It's a dendritic cell cancer vaccine created with the company's proprietary technology, and it's in various stages of development in a few different oncology types right now. The one we're focusing on here is a glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) indication. GBM is a type of brain cancer for which there's basically no effective treatment. Surgical resection goes some way to extended life when it's caught early, but not by much. DCVax-L, the name given to the iteration of the asset with which Northwest is targeting GBM, showed some really promising results in early to mid stage trials, the moved into a phase III in 2015.Then everything ground to a halt.The company reported a partial hold on the study, but gave no reason as to why the hold was in place, and basically dropped like a stone from a market cap perspective.We speculated in this piece as to why a) the hold might be in place and b) why the company wasn’t able to divulge any information, but it was just (albeit educated) speculation. Just last month, we noted here that the drop in market cap was an opportunity to get in to the company ahead of the crowd, as we suspected things might start to develop as we moved into the early new year.Well, we just had our suspicions vindicated.Northwest just announced that the partial hold had been lifted, and that the progression free survival events threshold for the study has been reached. We learned earlier in the year that the company no longer intends to enroll any new patients on the study (the trial was around 90% enrolled when the hold was put in place) and so now it's just a case of waiting for the overall survival threshold to hit, and we should get data from the investigation.The important thing to recognize here is that the longer this takes, the better it is for the study. That the progression free survival threshold has hit is great, but that the overall survival threshold has not yet it is even better – it basically means that patients on the study are surviving for a far longer period than expected. In any oncology target, that's great news, but with an aggressive brain cancer indication, it's even better.So what's next?PFS event target was 248, and that's been hit, as mentioned. The OS target is 233, and that's what we're waiting on right now. Like we say, the longer it takes, the better, but at the same time, the sooner it hits, the sooner we should see some activity in the stock. The company is up around 10% on the update relating to the hold lift, but for us, this is juts the beginning of a longer term recovery.As the long time holders will know, this update has been a long time coming, and we will need to see more than a 10% gain before said holders forgive and forget.So, in summary, it's now all about the OS threshold. Once hit, and assuming the data points towards efficacy (and with the time it's taking, we don't see any other outcome), this one should really start to run.We will be updating our subscribers as soon as we know more. For the latest updates on NWBO, sign up below!Disclosure: We have no position in NWBO and have not been compensated for this article.

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