Bellerophon Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:BLPH): Here's What We're Watching

Back during the middle of February, we took a look at Bellerophon Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:BLPH) as part of this coverage. At the time, the company was trading at around $1.3 a share. The driver behind our coverage was a run that came seemingly on the back of no major catalysts. These sorts of runs often catch our attention, and when we look into things in a little more detail, we generally find some potential near term drivers that could be underpinning markets loading up ahead of said catalysts. That was the case here. This time around, however, it wasn’t just our attention that the stock caught.Right after we released our interpretation of what was driving the action, research firm LifeSci capital put out this report. The report release served to announce the firms coverage initiation of the stock, and just as we had done, the report put forward a bullish outlook on the stock.As mentioned, when we highlighted the company, it went for $1.3 a pop. At last count, this had risen to $1.77 – a nearly 40% run in a couple of weeks.If we've got our thesis correct, there's more to come, however, and the LifeSci coverage reinforces our bias.So, with this in mind, and as a follow up to our previous coverage, here are the major catalysts to keep an eye on near to medium term, and what we expect from each in terms of impact.For those new to the company, it's a development stage biotechnology company working on treatments rooted in nitric oxide (NO), specifically an inhalable formulation of NO, in a target indication of patients suffering from cardiopulmonary diseases, specifically pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). This market, the PAH market, is a fast growing space, having expanded from $1 billion to $5 billion in annual revenues between 2007 and 2017 alone in the US, and the treatment types that Bellerophon is developing should be able to target around 40% of these revenues comfortably. The lead asset is called INOpulse (we took a look at this in some detail in our last piece, so readers can get up to speed here), and it's basically a portable system through which patients can self administer inhalable NO. The three lead target indications right now are the above mentioned PAH, and two subtypes of PAH, pulmonary hypertension associated with both chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (PH-COPD) and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (PH-IPF).And it's this asset in the three just mentioned indications that give us our catalysts near term.The first catalysts derive from mid stage phase II studies in the smaller indications – the PH-COPD and the PH-IPF targets. INOpulse is currently under investigation in a phase II in each of these targets, and topline from both is expected mid-2017. We expect the numbers to hit press very early third quarter. There's a low double digit percentage point upside on both releases (there's a good chance they'll hit press at the same time) if they come out as supportive of efficacy in their respective indications.The third catalyst derives from an interim release from a phase III study of the asset in PAH. As we've said, this is the lead indication, and it's very much the headline study as far as proportional value is concerned. Data from a phase II pointed towards marked improvements in the primary – a stat sig increase in 6-minute walk distance – and we're looking for the phase III to replicate this endpoint hit. There are two phase IIIs planned – this one, and a withdrawal study. We're getting some interim from the primary study this year (we expect late third quarter) and then – around the same time – we should see initiation of the withdrawal study. Beyond that, topline from the primary study will hit mid 2018, and then we'll see topline from the withdrawal in the fourth quarter of next year.Bottom line here is that the next twelve to eighteen months are riddled with catalysts, and each has the potential to really inject some long term, sustainable, value into Bellerophon. There are risks, as usual. Cash is around $20 million, and this will last to mid to late 2018, but we'll see a raise before the end of next year. There's also a risk rooted in the data – if it doesn’t hit in one of the indications, there's a real chance of failure in the remaining two.That said, from a risk reward perspective, we think this one is attractive, and a look at recent price action suggests markets favor our bias.We will be updating our subscribers as soon as we know more. For the latest updates on BLPH, sign up below!Disclosure: We have no position in BLPH and have not been compensated for this article.