BIND Therapeutics Inc (OTCMKTS:BINDQ): What Can Shareholder's Expect?

A short while ago we covered BIND Therapeutics Inc (OTCMKTS:BINDQ), with the conclusion that two scenarios are the most likely. The first, that the chapter II would turn into chapter 7 post asset sale. The second, that the restructuring would be successful, but BIND's creditors would cancel the existing shares.We now know that Pfizer Inc.(NYSE:PFE) has agreed to pick up BIND's assets for $40 million, and that the first of our proposed scenarios is in the process of playing out. BIND has changed its name to an ironic DNIB Unwind, Inc, and the company has appointed a team to oversee the liquidation process.On one level, it’s a shame for BIND, because the Pfizer interest validates the company's pipeline, and it shows that mismanagement is at the core of the unravelling, not misguided science. On another level, none of that matters now. There's only one question left for BIND shareholders, and that is what do they get for their paper?The short answer is, no one really knows, but we can take a few educated guesses.Let's start with the facts. BIND IR put out an email saying that there are so many variables that it can't possible estimate how much of the $40 million will be distributed among shareholders. We know, however, that BIND is estimating it's going to have around $22.5 million left over to distribute to shareholders form the sale. This number came from the company's lawyer, Peter Gilhuly, shortly after the approval of the Pfizer deal. There are 20.89 million shares outstanding, which – ceteris paribus – would value each share at a little over $1.07. That's a decent premium on the price at halt, and even better on some of the lows reached before the deal closed, but it's far from secure.The company has set a date of August 30 for claims, by which all claims made against BIND as part of the liquidation process need to be filed. At this point we will get a little bit more clarity on the liability side of the equation. There's a holdback in play, to the tune of $1.9 million, which BIND may never receive. There are what the company refers to as "expenses related to the estate", which could include pretty much anything the newly named DNIB wants to include. There are severance payments, which best guess estimates put at around $800K.Deduct any or all of these from the $22.5 million stated by Gilhuly, and the per share price is getting much closer to the last close (at trade suspension). Add the potential for warrant conversion pre distribution – there were around 2.4 million outstanding shares eligible for conversion via warrants on March 31 – and we're getting even closer to close-price parity, perhaps below.Of course, this isn’t necessarily a bad thing for holders that picked up shares at May, June lows. It's also a decent outcome for longer term holders, who were potentially faced with getting nothing if BIND shares got cancelled by creditors. However, there was a flurry of activity at the end of last week as people speculating on $1-2 a share distribution picked up an exposure before trading closed out. A sort of arbitrage play, based almost entirely on Gilhuly's loose statement. In our opinion, this is a is a real gamble.One final note. This is a bankruptcy proceeding, and while a lawyer has stated that a certain figure will be up for distribution, there is no guarantee anything will be paid out. Just look what's happening with Sunedison Inc (OTCMKTS:SUNEQ). It's strange that a lawyer would even make such a comment before the final numbers were in, and while we don't know where he got his number from, or why he felt inclined to reveal it to the markets when he did, it can't be trusted as anything close to gospel.We're watching this one closely for any information that lends a bit of clarity to the situation. Sign up to our free newsletter below and we'll update you as soon as we know anything more.Disclosure: We have no position in BINDQ and have not been compensated for this article.